TODAY'S FORECAST: High 80°/Low 59°... Partly cloudy & warmer today. A bit breezy this afternoon. Partly cloudy & mild tonight.
Updated Tuesday, May 22, 2012 at 7:08 AM...
High pressure was over the region last night, causing clear skies and light winds. The air is also quite dry and able to cool rapidly. As a result, favored cool spots to our north/east dropped into the mid-upper 30s early this morning. The rest of the area saw morning lows in the 40s, with some low 50s west of the Mississippi River.
The high will shift to our east today. At the same time, a system will build into the Northern Plains. The pressure gradient between the departing high and approaching low will cause winds to pick up this afternoon from the south around 10-20 mph. Gusts of 25 mph will be possible west of the Mississippi River. These "warming" winds, along with partly cloudy skies, will cause highs today right around 80º.
Tonight will be partly cloudy and mild with morning lows mainly in the 50s... so not nearly as cool as last night.
The disturbance to our west gets closer tomorrow. As a result, expect a mix of sun and clouds with a slight chance of showers and t-storms late in the day and into Wednesday night, especially north & west of La Crosse. Expect highs Wednesday to warm into the low to mid 80s thanks to gusty south winds 10-20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph possible.
Looking Ahead... Breezy and warm conditions continue Thursday with highs in the low-mid 80s. Low pressure to the north will swing a cold front east across the region, sparking a chance of scattered showers and t-storms. Some of the models are hinting that a secondary low could develop along the front and move into the region Thursday afternoon/evening. If this occurs, then the rain chances will be higher and there could also be some strong to severe storms. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has most of our viewing area under a Slight Risk of severe weather with the main threats being large hail and high winds. Locally heavy rain could also be possible. Stay tuned for updates.
Friday looks a bit cooler with highs in the mid 70s. We still can't fully rule out an isolated shower or t-storm, but most areas will most likely stay dry.
The forecast heading into the Memorial holiday weekend is a bit unclear at this time. The models are indicating a frontal boundary will stall out across the region west to east. However, they are struggling on where exactly this front will set up (north vs south) and this will be key on how warm we get and how high the rain chances will be. So at this point, we'll keep at least a slight chance of showers and t-storms on all three days, with highs warming back into the 80s Saturday & Sunday, then cooling back into the upper 70s for Memorial Day. As of this morning, the best chance of rain looks to be on Sunday and Memorial Day. We will fine tune the holiday weekend forecast through the week as the models hopefully latch on to a more agreeable solution. At this point, I wouldn't go cancelling your outdoor plans because even if it does rain... I'm not expecting all day washouts.
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