TODAY'S FORECAST: High 40°/Low 29°... Mix of sun & clouds today. Clouds thicken tonight with a chance of snow after about 4AM. A **WINTER STORM WATCH** now in effect for Thursday with periods of accumulating snow expected.
Updated Wednesday, February 22, 2012 at 11:25 AM...
Many areas will see some sunshine this morning, but expect some clouds at times today as well. The cause for the clouds is a disturbance sliding by to our south across Iowa today. There's also a weak disturbance sliding E/SE out of North Dakota this morning that will cause some clouds at times this afternoon. It could even squeeze out a few sprinkles or flurries in some spots. Expect highs today around 40º, with much lighter winds from the west at 5-10 mph.
Tonight a "hybrid-clipper" system approaches from the west. I call it a hybrid because it will have some Pacific moisture to work with, and typical clippers do not. Clouds will thicken this evening with a chance of snow developing after about 4AM. Lows tonight will slip into the upper 20s.
**UPDATE** Periods of accumulating snow is looking more and more likely for Thursday. This morning I said the forecast snowfall for this system on Thursday was a tricky one because one lone computer model indicated around 6" of snow possible in La Crosse, while most others barely gave us 1". Well guess what, most of the models are jumping ship and joining the more northerly track, stronger and snowier solution that was the outlier this morning. As a result, I've increased my forecast snowfall totals for tomorrow by about 3". So at this point it looks like the lightest amounts of a Tr. -3" will be possible along & north of I-94 (including Eau Claire), with 2"-6" possible elsewhere (including Winona, La Crosse, Tomah and Viroqua). Some of the models even advertise localized heavier amounts of 6"-8" in a few spots. Stay tuned for updates to this snowfall forecast as we'll get another couple sets of model data in by later tonight. This way we can see if the latest model runs are verifying this stronger and snowier solution.
Looking Ahead... Another weaker disturbance slides southeast across the region Friday. This will keep plenty of clouds around along with a chance of light snow showers or flurries. Just minor if any accumulations of a trace to a couple tenths of an inch are possible Friday. Highs Friday will be seasonable in the low-mid 30s.
High pressure will bring a dry Saturday with highs in the low-mid 30s under partly cloudy skies.
We're still watching a strong storm that could impact the region on Sunday and Monday. This mornings model guidance is trending the center of the low farther north, meaning we would see more of a rain/snow mix in our area. This would keep the heaviest accumulating snow to our northwest across the Dakotas and into Central and NW Minnesota. I'm not going to get too cute with the forecast on this storm just yet as the energy for this system is still well out over the Pacific Ocean. Once the system get closer to and over land, then the computer models tend to latch on to better data. That's when we'll start fine tuning this forecast, but stay tuned for updates on the Sun/Mon system. It looks like it will be quite windy with this system as well.
The computer models have now flip-flopped again for next Tuesday & Thursday... going back to spinning up another fairly strong storm that could bring a rain/snow mix (Tue) and snow (Wed). Once again... stay tuned for updates as it seems we're in for a wild end to February. -Bill Graul
Partly cloudy in the morning, then mostly cloudy with rain showers. High of 48F. Winds from the West at 5-10 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy in the evening, then overcast with a chance of snow. Low of 28F with a windchill as low as 19F. Winds from the North at 5-15 mph shifting to the ESE after midnight. Chance of snow 40%.
Thursday
Overcast with a chance of snow, then a chance of snow and rain in the afternoon. High of 43F. Winds from the ENE at 5-15 mph. Chance of snow 50% with accumulations up to 1 in. possible.
Thursday Night
Overcast with a chance of snow and rain. Low of 27F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of snow 30%.
Friday
Overcast with a chance of snow in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a chance of snow and a chance of rain. High of 37F with a windchill as low as 18F. Winds from the NW at 5-15 mph. Chance of snow 40%.
Friday Night
Overcast with a chance of snow and rain showers. Low of 19F. Winds from the NW at 5-10 mph. Chance of snow 40%.
Saturday
Mostly cloudy in the morning, then clear. High of 36F with a windchill as low as 12F. Winds from the WNW at 5-15 mph.
Saturday Night
Overcast in the evening, then partly cloudy. Low of 23F. Winds from the ESE at 5-10 mph.
Sunday
Overcast with a chance of rain in the afternoon. High of 46F. Winds from the SE at 15-25 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Sunday Night
Overcast with a chance of snow. Low of 25F. Winds from the SSE at 10-20 mph. Chance of snow 50% with accumulations up to 1 in. possible.
Monday
Partly cloudy with a chance of snow. High of 32F with a windchill as low as 16F. Winds from the West at 15-25 mph. Chance of snow 50% with accumulations up to 1 in. possible.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy with a chance of snow. Low of 12F. Winds from the WNW at 5-20 mph.
Tuesday
Partly cloudy. High of 23F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy. Low of 14F with a windchill as low as 7F. Winds from the SSW at 5-10 mph.
Wednesday
Clear. High of 34F with a windchill as low as 5F. Winds from the WSW at 5-10 mph.
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